[dencorso]

cluberti, on 20 November 2011 - 02:52 PM, said:

I guess "we'll see" is the answer, but Microsoft no longer supporting the OS but requiring activation will be the interesting bit once they start taking things down. Perhaps a hotfix to disable WPA is in the cards?

I do hope so. If, as you say, the userbase falls to 25% (or even less, perhaps), it would be an elegant and cost effective way to shut down the sevice, while catering for the rights of legitimate owners. I think that'd make everybody happy.

[vipejc]

mjdbb1, on 18 November 2011 - 09:00 PM, said:

Although I can't find the source now, I do remember reading in some documentation from Microsoft that if they were to discontinue the activation servers, they would release an update that would disable the need for activation. I'll update this post if I can find the original article...

I can confirm this, as I just read it from a trusted source.

[Phenomic]

Microsoft knew they were in trouble when millions of Vista installations stopped calling home, people hated that s*** and deleted it. I know I deleted mine. Win7 (Vista lite) isn’t any better, I’m running it in VM under Linux, it’s a dog, no wonder people are going back to XP. Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft, so MS may go bankrupt or become insignificant. They fired 5,000 employees in 1 day awhile back.

So the OP has a valid concern, if XP stops functioning millions of businesses will grind to a halt, we may even have a worldwide recession.

[Tripredacus]

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

Um... over 350 million Windows 7 licenses have been sold since launch, which includes 175 million from 09/2011 through 12/2011. I'm not too sure about exact iPad numbers, but an estimated 48 million iPads sold in 2011. So maybe you meant some other Microsoft product, let alone everything the company sells.

[Phenomic]

Tripredacus, on 23 January 2012 - 07:40 PM, said:

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

Um... over 350 million Windows 7 licenses have been sold since launch, which includes 175 million from 09/2011 through 12/2011. I'm not too sure about exact iPad numbers, but an estimated 48 million iPads sold in 2011. So maybe you meant some other Microsoft product, let alone everything the company sells.

http://www.bloomberg...le-company.html

http://www.bloomberg...at-hp-dell.html

[5eraph]

The articles you linked do not prove your statement, Phenomic. Financial pundits do not reliably predict the future—or accurately describe the present, sometimes.

[CoffeeFiend]

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

Microsoft knew they were in trouble when millions of Vista installations stopped calling home

Only to call home with a different version of Windows right after (an extra sale of the OS) -- nevermind that they already bought Vista as well, so two sales of an OS for one PC. They should be worried about that?

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

Win7 (Vista lite) isn’t any better, I’m running it in VM under Linux, it’s a dog, no wonder people are going back to XP

For every person with that opinion, there's like a hundred of the other. I wouldn't ever go back to XP myself (way outdated), and I don't even know anyone who still willingly runs XP. Vista and Win7 were both FAR better in a lot of ways!

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

That was already proven wrong, but also: a piece of mobile hardware is outselling an OS (software) for a different kind of device? That's like saying planes are outselling boats (disregarding that it isn't even the case) and then predicting the future (the demise of boats, of course!) based on that.

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

so MS may go bankrupt

They have a vast range of products companies are buying (and are basically locked into, so they will keep buying), almost every PC sold comes with Windows, their stock is doing great (up by 10% this month, from $26.53 to $29.34) and they have huge cash reserves. Yes, they're clearly doomed! Even with Win8 being worse than Vista and WinME (Metro-only) they'll certainly survive -- plenty of time to turn around.

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

They fired 5,000 employees in 1 day awhile back.

Just like every major tech company does every once in a while a.k.a. trim the fat (and then they hire some more). And that was back in 2009, the same year Apple laid off 1600 people in retail alone, and even Google laid off a couple hundred people in that same year. HP, Cisco, Adobe, Dell, AMD, etc all had layoffs in that time frame.

So yes, doomsday for sure, and sooner than later. The sky is clearly falling, and there would be no easy solutions to this simple problem either.

[Phenomic]

5eraph, on 24 January 2012 - 08:43 AM, said:

The articles you linked do not prove your statement, Phenomic. Financial pundits do not reliably predict the future—or accurately describe the present, sometimes.

The numbers speak for themselves, I’m not interested in proving anything or debating.

Remember it’s not just installation, XP calls home regularly to “validate”, so if the servers go down millions of working copies of XP will become nagware/crippleware. So I’m sticking with Win2000.

[CharlotteTheHarlot]

Tripredacus, on 23 January 2012 - 07:40 PM, said:

Phenomic, on 23 January 2012 - 06:58 PM, said:

Apple iPad alone is outselling Microsoft

Um... over 350 million Windows 7 licenses have been sold since launch, which includes 175 million from 09/2011 through 12/2011. I'm not too sure about exact iPad numbers, but an estimated 48 million iPads sold in 2011. So maybe you meant some other Microsoft product, let alone everything the company sells.

Well of course you are correct. But what really helped the 'sales' of Windows 6.1 was in the killing of its competition, XP (and even Vista).

Kinda like a NASCAR race where all the cars except one is removed from the track.

Microsoft showing off their OS 'sales' these days is deceptive, to say the least. If XP had been released (maybe as retail MCE) *and* still offered as OEM pre-installed, the numbers would surely be entirely different.

[Ponch]

CharlotteTheHarlot, on 25 January 2012 - 03:15 AM, said:

Microsoft showing off their OS 'sales' these days is deceptive, to say the least. If XP had been released (maybe as retail MCE) *and* still offered as OEM pre-installed, the numbers would surely be entirely different.

Huh... not the total. 1PC sold is still 1 licence sold, how do you go bankrupt from that ?

[CharlotteTheHarlot]

Ponch, on 25 January 2012 - 03:47 AM, said:

CharlotteTheHarlot, on 25 January 2012 - 03:15 AM, said:

Microsoft showing off their OS 'sales' these days is deceptive, to say the least. If XP had been released (maybe as retail MCE) *and* still offered as OEM pre-installed, the numbers would surely be entirely different.

Huh... not the total. 1PC sold is still 1 licence sold, how do you go bankrupt from that ?

No, I didn't mean Microsoft was hurting (financial trouble) or anything like that! I am only talking about the "Windows 7 sales are very strong" nonsense which always emanates from the tech press, CNBC, FBC and of course Redmond (and yes, we can substitute any previous OS's for 'Windows 7' as well). It is simply a meaningless measure of sales performance of an OS product.

I'm not sure how to qualitatively compare 'sales' of a new OS versus a previous (killed) OS. Sales totals these days are certainly more a measure of laptops and smaller hardware sales than anything else. In previous years it more about OEM desktops. And then there is the huge business and corporate footprint which often lag the current release by a version (or two) which mucks things up further. It is such a unique market with seldom more than one real product available.

NB: this is definitely not a call for government interference either! They need to stay out because it could only make it worse.

[Tripredacus]

CharlotteTheHarlot, on 25 January 2012 - 03:15 AM, said:

Microsoft showing off their OS 'sales' these days is deceptive

Its not deceptive really, but Apple's OS sales are in the retail space because I'm fairly certain that is the only channel they are in. Their OS can be bought on a PC they make, or the retail box at the store. A Microsoft OS can come in retail box, distribution (OEM/SB), Open (Education) license, MSDN/Technet subscription, royalty OEM, etc. So yes the numbers comparison is Retail Channel (Apple) vs all channels (Microsoft) but there is nothing to stop Apple from going into those other areas.

Anyways, I'm not sold on the "XP calls home" stuff. I don't think that is true at all. The only times I've seen XP validate itself is:
- Installation/activation + grace period
- installing new WGA version
- MSSE or Malicious Software Removal Tool update/installation
- MS direct download validation

I've had XP PCs off a network for years and it doesn't ever one day just become "You may be a victim of software piracy" just like that.