Windows 8 - Deeper Impressions

[JorgeA]

A highly readable roundup of the Windows wrecking team and what's become of them:

Turmoil at Microsoft; implications for Windows users

Woody is absolutely not a Win8 fan. He is hopeful about the next version of Windows because all the wreckers are gone, but this observation near the end gives me pause:

I also note in passing that Satya Nadella, the new Microsoft CEO, was in charge of Bing less than three years ago. So the new heavy hitters know both mobile and the cloud — arguably two of the blind spots among their predecessors.

Given that it was precisely the attempt to integrate "mobile" and "cloud" into Windows that created the current mess, if anything this suggests that the new Windows team might drive even deeper into the mire.

Time will tell...

--JorgeA

[jaclaz]

I will translate that article for you.

Blah-blah-blah, some self-evident, reknown facts of the past, blah-blah-blah, some bad mouthing of the people involved in Windows 8/8.1 (with which Woody Leonhard never had a good feeling with), blah-blah-blah, some preventive bad mouthing of the people that will be involved in Windows 9, blah-blah-blah, I know nothing if not what Mary Jo Foley reports on Zdnet:
http://www.zdnet.com/more-on-microsofts-sku-morphic-windows-vision-7000024092/
... and I am hopeful that Windows 9 will be an astounding success on mobiles, touch and traditional desktops.

The interesting part is that Mary Jo Foley (in her "update" to the article) downright cites Paul Thurrott as (a reliable) source:
http://winsupersite.com/windows-8/further-changes-coming-windows-threshold
and concludes by saying how welcome are these changes (that will hopefully lead to Windows 9 being an astounding success on mobiles, touch and traditional desktops)
Paul Thurrott of course cites Mary Jo Foley as "base source", and concludes that the big news such as the return of the Start Menu and Metro NCI apps runnning in windows on the desktop, cannot but lead to Windows 9 being an astounding success on mobiles, touch and traditional desktops.

Not only they are BORG , but they want to appear as wise ones (you know like each of them had not already at the time already praised the Windows 8 as the best third thing in life after sliced bread and ice-cream, and now claim to have always hated the new interface and design and predicted it's failure).

jaclaz

[TELVM]

Mary Jo Foley's prediction in particular dispels any doubt we could habour in our hearts that Windows 9 will be an astounding success on mobiles, touch and, quite specially, on traditional desktops :

... A more traditional consumer SKU would be aimed at the current PC market. This SKU would include a desktop and be customized so that mouse/keyboard users will be able to continue to have some semblance of productivity and familiarity with Windows. This SKU also would be updated regularly and often through the Windows Store ...

[JorgeA]

I will translate that article for you.

Blah-blah-blah, some self-evident, reknown facts of the past, blah-blah-blah, some bad mouthing of the people involved in Windows 8/8.1 (with which Woody Leonhard never had a good feeling with), blah-blah-blah, some preventive bad mouthing of the people that will be involved in Windows 9, blah-blah-blah, I know nothing if not what Mary Jo Foley reports on Zdnet:

http://www.zdnet.com/more-on-microsofts-sku-morphic-windows-vision-7000024092/

... and I am hopeful that Windows 9 will be an astounding success on mobiles, touch and traditional desktops.

The interesting part is that Mary Jo Foley (in her "update" to the article) downright cites Paul Thurrott as (a reliable) source:

http://winsupersite.com/windows-8/further-changes-coming-windows-threshold

and concludes by saying how welcome are these changes (that will hopefully lead to Windows 9 being an astounding success on mobiles, touch and traditional desktops)

Paul Thurrott of course cites Mary Jo Foley as "base source", and concludes that the big news such as the return of the Start Menu and Metro NCI apps runnning in windows on the desktop, cannot but lead to Windows 9 being an astounding success on mobiles, touch and traditional desktops.

Not only they are BORG , but they want to appear as wise ones (you know like each of them had not already at the time already praised the Windows 8 as the best third thing in life after sliced bread and ice-cream, and now claim to have always hated the new interface and design and predicted it's failure).

jaclaz

There's a lot of truth in that.

But Mary Jo Foley was never a big Win8 booster. She thought it worked on a tablet, but her general enthusiasm for it never reached anywhere near the levels of Thurrott's manic phase of his Win8 bipolarity.

And AFAIK Woody Leonhard always disliked Windows 8. Wasn't he one of the leading and early critics? I'd be curious to see links to articles where he praised it unequivocally like so many Metrotards.

--JorgeA

[JorgeA]

Mary Jo Foley's prediction in particular dispels any doubt we could habour in our hearts that Windows 9 will be an astounding success on mobiles, touch and, quite specially, on traditional desktops :

... A more traditional consumer SKU would be aimed at the current PC market. This SKU would include a desktop and be customized so that mouse/keyboard users will be able to continue to have some semblance of productivity and familiarity with Windows. This SKU also would be updated regularly and often through the Windows Store ...

If that's the way things turn out, it will be bad. I have successfully avoided getting a Microsoft account ever since they were trying to push Passport back in the days of Windows 98; I'm not itching to get one now.

--JorgeA

[TELVM]

Ditch your ancient XP and update to a modern secure OS before it's too late! Beware of doomsday, you sinners!

Windows 8 is the most vulnerable Windows OS, you can thank Flash for that

[JorgeA]

That is a delicious bit of information!

The case for Windows 8 is collapsing like a Ukrainian government.

And check out this amazing table:

If this reflects reality, then the bottom line is that WinXP -- for all its supposed obsolescence and lack of modern security technology -- is the safest of the current Microsoft OSes.

Just amazing.

Great find! It's late at night here, so tomorrow I'll read the Secunia report to see if the analysis holds up. But right now this sure doesn't look good for FrankenWindows.

--JorgeA

EDIT: I read the Secunia report. There's something there with respect to "vulnerabilities" (which are defined as, "an error in software which can be exploited with a security impact and gain) that has me scratching my head: according to Secunia, "vulnerabilities" in Windows XP and 7 (note: independently of third-party software) went up from 49 and 50, respectively, in 2012 to 99 and 102 in 2013, or about the same levels as in 2011. Don't understand how an OS can suddenly be "half" as vulnerable next year and then "twice" as vulnerable again the year after that, especially since these OSes are patched monthly. Do Windows patches introduce their own new security flaws, perhaps even more flaws than they fix?? Maybe someone reading this is familiar with Secunia's methodology.

Edited February 28, 2014 by JorgeA

[jaclaz]

Let's talk for a moment about the three most notable security features introduced with Vista or post-Vista.

They are:

• UAC - User Account Control
• DEP - Data execution Prevention
• ASLR - Address Space Layout Randomization

UAC is (mostly) "common sense", it is very little more than inducing/forcing the user to run the system as it should in normal operation (i.e. NOT as Admin).

DEP is a "smart" feature, simple and - in theory - effective, in practice not so much

ASLR, notwithstanding it pompous name is a nice technique but - again - in practice it's effectiveness is limited

Each of these features one by one or all together have been "sold" to us as very relevant increases in security, papers ans papers have been written about them, conferences held and what is the practical result?

There is no statistically measurable increase in security (or reduction of insecurity).

Imagine that you want to secure your house against intrusions.

You change your front door with a "safe" door, steel, reinforced hinges, with a mindboggingly complex lock.

Then you brag about for months with your friends about how safe is your front door and how smart you are at having it fitted, until a burglar, a kid which left high school early because he was too d@mn dumb to follow the lessons enters your house and steals your beloved big screen TV (yes he used a street cleaner bristle he found casually on the road in front of your house to open the basement door in no time).

jaclaz

Edited February 28, 2014 by jaclaz

[bpalone]

From JorgeA above:

Do Windows patches introduce their own new security flaws, perhaps even more flaws than they fix??

Any time you add code, you are running the risk of introducing NEW bugs and/or opening up new possible exploits. The more more complex the software, the higher the odds are of inadvertently introducing an undesired effect. To many things dependent upon other things and changing one thing may fix one item and create 10 other items. So, yes it is possible, but Microsoft should do a reasonable shakedown on any patch to minimize the possibility of creating new issues. However, their engineers are also human, so things do happen.

bpalone

[jaclaz]

And AFAIK Woody Leonhard always disliked Windows 8. Wasn't he one of the leading and early critics? I'd be curious to see links to articles where he praised it unequivocally like so many Metrotards.

Yes and no.

Meaning that while undoubtedly he was one of the critics of Windows 8, he did not actually criticize directly and flatly the UI and it's nonsenses, he stated (and he was one of the few ones at the time) that "power users" would have not liked it (which is a different thing).

Also he is much more "democratic" than Thurrott, I.e. he seemingly allows readers to have a different opinion than his.

Recent article:

http://www.infoworld.com/t/technology-business/microsofts-aha-ui-engineer-julie-larson-green-should-engineer-uis-237109

Basically (if you look carefully between the lines you can see the bit of saliva drooling at the corner of his mouth) Julie Larson-Green is the best ever designer of UI, a goddess of usability and interfaces that we were gifted with:

http://www.infoworld.com/t/technology-business/microsofts-aha-ui-engineer-julie-larson-green-should-engineer-uis-237109

read it attentively, whatever Julie does is good, innovative and a perfect example of UI engineering (she is GOOD at it), the fact that some people may not like that senseless §hit that was forced upon them starting with the ribbon is recorded in passing by.

... she created and deployed Office 2007's Ribbon, which was (and is) a landmark in user interface design, whether you like it or not.

Your opinion may vary, but as far as I'm concerned, Win7 has the best UI of any Microsoft product before or since.

She and Harris were largely responsible for the Jekyll-and-Hyde user interface (er, "user experience") in Windows 8, a fact that admittedly won't endear her to many.

and the funny part is that once set apart the basic adoration for Julie as UI engineer and the usual bad-mouthing of everyone else at MS, the actual theme seems to be:

I've rarely seen such a crowning example of management double-talk.

Well, I have rarely seen such crowning examples of editor/journalist double-talk as Woody's articles.

In any case, these whole kind of supposedly technical journalism that relies on petty-talking, bad-mouthing (or exalting) people and corporate gossip is something I could well live without.

It's hard to defend the guy, but though obviously the main responsible for the fail is Sinofsky, I find it very bad taste (besides being unfair) that he is held as the one and only culprit of everything, MS is well structured, has zillions of top level managers, it is not plausible that they are all (or were all turned by Sinofsky) into yes-men/yes-women, the (BIG) fail is a corporate fail.

jaclaz

[JorgeA]

Windows 8.1 update due in spring with concessions to mouse and keyboard users

We know this news of course, but here's the reason I'm posting the story:

At a Sunday press event prior to Mobile World Congress, Microsoft vice president Joe Belfiore led with bright news about Windows 8: Microsoft has sold 200 million licenses (more than all of OS X’s user base, he noted); users have downloaded 4 million apps from the Windows Store; and 40 percent of Windows 8 machines are touch-enabled.

Notice anything strange about these stats? Assuming the numbers are all correct, think about it -- 200 million Win8 licenses sold, but 4 million apps have been downloaded from the Windows Store? Let's stipulate, for the sake of argument, that that "200 million licenses" figure is not hype and that they are all now in use. This would seem to suggest that, on average, 1 in 50 Win8 users have downloaded even one app from the Windows Store.

If this is on the mark, it doesn't bode well at all for the prospects of the Windows Store and for Microsoft's walled-garden model generally.

--JorgeA

[bpalone]

From The Verge:

Microsoft experimenting with free version of Windows 8.1

I guess that if we can't convince you to buy it, maybe we can get you to take it for free.

Microsoft is currently experimenting with a free version of Windows 8.1 that could boost the number of people using the operating system.

The entire article is here: http://www.theverge.com/2014/2/28/5456374/windows-8-1-with-bing-experiment

To me, it almost sounds like desperation time. But, then I back off and try to be objective. At which point, I can almost start to see some reasons for them wanting to monetize the Cloud aspect of their current business. The ARM CPU is quietly taking over the processor position in a large number of devices. Almost all mobile devices such as telephones and tablets, and the OS war is already over there. It is starting to appear in the server room and I even think I have seen things about some moves to the desktop.

So, could we be watching the move from one platform to another and Microsoft is trying really hard not to be left out?

bpalone

[jaclaz]

This would seem to suggest that, on average, 1 in 50 Win8 users have downloaded even one app from the Windows Store.

It does suggest exactly that, but any data if treated in bulk will regress to an average, which in some cases won't be an accurate representation of reality, but in this case the numbers are grossly wrong.

Let's take into account the number of apps on the store.

According to this:

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2043502/windows-8s-windows-store-hits-the-100-000-app-milestone-as-it-gains-momentum.html

in July 2013 there were more than 100,000 apps on the Windows Store.

Currently there are

http://metrostorescanner.com/

Latest scan: Saturday, 01 March 2014

Apps found: 146718

So, on average, each app has been downloaded less than 30 times.

No, 4 millions makes no sense whatsoever.

From the same article:

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2099948/windows-8-1-update-due-in-spring-with-concessions-to-mouse-and-keyboard-users.html

and 40 percent of Windows 8 machines are touch-enabled.

And:

http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2013/11/state-windows-8-app-ecosystem.html

So shouldn't sales of Windows 8/8.1-based PCs be driving volume and, therefore, developer interest? Why aren't developers taking this user base into account? The answer is simple: Most Windows 8 devices are bought as PCs, not tablets. Slapping a tablet interface (or a touchscreen) onto a PC doesn't address this problem. Most users would spend very limited time in the Metro interface and switch back to desktop for the jobs they needed the PC to accomplish. As a result, the Windows 8 store has been relegated to the background and developers are losing interest in the platform.

please note how we don't have (besides the obviously wrong 4 millions mentioned) any actual data about the number of downloads from the Windows Store, meanwhile in Cupertino with a much smaller user base, they were downloading in 2012 a slightly larger number of apps, let's re-read this (please take note of the date it was published):

http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/09/ios-android-pc-replacement-impact.html

2) Touch-optimized apps on non-touch devices - Windows 8 apps would mostly be touch optimized and are unlikely to be used by average, traditional PC users on non-touch devices.

As an example, let’s take a look at Apple’s experience. Since the Mac is more of a niche product, average Mac users tend to be more sophisticated than average PC users and we can assume higher app usage. However, the Mac Appstore totalled only about a 100 million downloads last year (with an install base of nearly 60 million), while iOS users download about half of that number every single day (with an install base that is roughly double that of the Mac).

Based on this and the Windows' upgrade cycle, it is fairly safe to say that Windows 8 apps will not find much traction among traditional PC users.

Should we need a further proof that *any* number MS provides is random (or wrong, or both)

http://techcrunch.com/2013/11/11/microsofts-windows-store-averaged-1-7m-daily-downloads-in-october-up-nearly-40-from-june/

http://www.neowin.net/news/windows-store-begins-2014-with-over-142000-windows-apps

the Download from Windows Store are now a more reasonable 30 to 50 millions each month.

An interesting point to ponder is the 30 to 50:1 ratio between paid and free apps.

This thread is also an interesting read (for the mathematics/statistics oriented people):

http://social.msdn.microsoft.com/Forums/windowsapps/en-US/f845d222-02a7-4978-8a22-5e74dc2d26ec/how-are-your-app-sales-and-download-numbers?forum=windowsstore

jaclaz

[ZortMcGort11]

"Microsoft Mulls Over a Free Version of Windows 8.1: Desperate Times, Desperate Measures"

http://www.itproportal.com/2014/03/01/microsoft-mulls-over-a-free-version-of-windows-81-desperate-times-desperate-measures/

its significant that Microsoft is even looking at releasing a free version of Windows. If someone had suggested such an idea at Old Microsoft, they probably wouldve been fired. To be honest, at this point in Windows 8s life cycle, and with the PC market continuing to fade, its probably not a bad idea for Microsoft to be exploring some drastic changes. Microsoft obviously needs to change something if it wants to continue competing in the PC and smartphone markets. If it has to give away its operating systems to grow its market shares until theyre non-trivial, then so be it. Its not like Microsoft cant afford to experiment for a while, especially if its a matter of life and death.

If I were the microsoft head honcho, I'd extend the life cycle of all current and former operating systems. Not only XP and 2000, but Windows ME/98/95 :-)

Why not support all your former products any way possible? Try and reach the absolute total potential of each system. Write new drivers for hardware. Fix bugs, anything!

Think of all the computer parts that ended up in landfills, and you can thank microsoft's greed for all that waste and pollution. But they could redeem themselves by becoming a green company :-)

Their policy of forcing people to upgrade has now reached the point where they have nobody left who needs or wants to upgrade. They might as well just hang on to what they got / had. Enjoy what's left of their domination. But that's only if I were the head honcho. First thing I would do is setup a KernelEx division and get started working on Windows ME second edition :-) And then I'd also extend the life cycle of 2000, XP and Vista, say, another decade at least!

They could have gotten into the computer recycling business too. But, it's too late at this point. The time to have done such a thing was before they started their campaign to rid the world of Internet Explorer 6 and now Windows XP (think of all the "ancient" computers out there). They could have continued supporting a vast user base for another decade.

If Microsoft goes bankrupt in another 5-10 years, I bet my ideas would've sounded good.

Edited March 1, 2014 by LostInSpace2012

[JorgeA]

From The Verge:

Microsoft experimenting with free version of Windows 8.1

I guess that if we can't convince you to buy it, maybe we can get you to take it for free.

Microsoft is currently experimenting with a free version of Windows 8.1 that could boost the number of people using the operating system.

I guess one can always find someone who'll take a free carton of rotten eggs...

To me, it almost sounds like desperation time. But, then I back off and try to be objective. At which point, I can almost start to see some reasons for them wanting to monetize the Cloud aspect of their current business. The ARM CPU is quietly taking over the processor position in a large number of devices. Almost all mobile devices such as telephones and tablets, and the OS war is already over there. It is starting to appear in the server room and I even think I have seen things about some moves to the desktop.

So, could we be watching the move from one platform to another and Microsoft is trying really hard not to be left out?

That makes sense. Free OS + Paid Cloud would be like Google's Android model.

--JorgeA