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Windows 8 - Deeper Impressions


JorgeA

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It seems NeoWin has finally stopped celebrating the cherry picked Nokia statistics and realized something I noticed above in Post #1512 ...

Samsung's record quarter: $8.3 billion profit, 63 million phones sold ( TechSpot 2013-01-10 )

Nokia's Lumia did 'better than expected' in Q4, 4.4 million units sold ( TechSpot 2013-01-10 )

Nokia sold 4.4m Lumia Windows Phones last quarter, "exceeded expectations" ( NeoWin 2013-01-10 )

The last headline is cherry-picked though, this is the quote about Nokia: "4.4 million Lumia smartphones were sold, along with 9.3 million Asha full-touch handsets and 2.2 million Symbian devices". ADDED: So Nokia sold 16 million phones total and the Lumias were a quarter of them. Unless I am mistaken, Microsoft is even losing marketshare just with Nokia! In other words, even if all other companies stopped making phones and only Nokia continued, they would still lose marketshare. Am I reading this correctly?

And that ends the Christmas silly season. It's all downhill for three more quarters. Meanwhile it looks like they are getting crushed by the others: "Samsung sold about 62 million handsets in the quarter, compared with Apple’s 45 million, according to estimates reported by Bloomberg." No breakdown on the Samsung numbers between Android or WP8 that I can find, but it must be microscopic.

The Microsoft thought process just doesn't add up. I have been trying to understand what they found in their spreadsheet projections that justifies turning the world upside-down with the Windows 8 fiasco and also the destruction of consumer value by forcing higher prices ( see next story ) with touchscreen madness. I just don't see what they saw. How could they even contemplate gaining any marketshare. It is far more likely they will gain nothing or even lose. This is starting to look like an Xbox gamble where "Windows" becomes the "console" but they never actually make any money except on the games ( Apps ). It looks similar to the Printer market where they only make profit on the ink and lock out other avenues of refills. More than a little coincidence I think.

Here are their two more realistic stories yesterday ...

Nokia's Asha range outselling Lumias 2:1 ( NeoWin 2013-01-13 )

The Lumia range of Windows phones are doing quite well for Nokia, having shipped 4.4 million units in the last quarter; but the range that's doing even better for Nokia is Asha, their low-end smart and featurephones for emerging markets have been selling like hotcakes.

Samsung: Over 100m Galaxy S series phones sold so far ( NeoWin 2013-01-14 )

By comparison, Nokia revealed a few days ago that during the last quarter, it sold a total of 4.4m Lumia handsets across its entire available range of Windows Phones (510, 610, 710, 800, 810, 820, 900 and 920) – which puts into perspective the challenge that both Nokia and Microsoft share in gaining ground on their mobile rivals.

Note that they still cannot bring themselves to actually mention that these Asha phones are non-WP8 phones, nor are the Symbian based handsets either. Well at least the NeoWin authors have finally gotten around to reading the articles they put up just a few days ago. Nokia WP8 phones cannot even compete with Nokia at the moment, let alone Apple or Samsung.

This begs the question I asked earlier, just how did Microsoft plan on penetrating the mobile market? What crazy bug is lurking in their Excel spreadsheet projections that convinced them that this was going to succeed? There must have been something really obvious, a slam dunk projection, to cause them to make this gigantic lurch destroying the "Windows" look and feel, and the brand itself in a reckless gamble that it would somehow attract us Windows veterans and n00bs into falling hopelessly head-over-heels in love with the phone interface. This is one of the great mysteries we are left to ponder.

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"Happy" Windows 8 customers over at the H-P Support Forum:

Im Done! HP needs to offer all new PC purchasers the option to switch out windows 8 for 7, at no cost.

What a load of junk windows 8 is, Ive lost so much work time with this new system. Big disappointment

Ive spent weeks now since Christmas trying to learn how to preform very basic tasks on my new HP that came with windows 8 installed. I have a few more days to decide if Im keeping or returning it. I cant decide if the trouble is my new HP P7-1490 is junk or is windows 8 really this frustrating & difficult to use. I've waisted so much time trying to read guides, tips, tricks & suggestions, anything that might make sense of this OS. If my HP is working correctly, then the problem is the installed OS 8.

I discovered this while searching for indications that H-P might consent to UPgrading new Win8 systems to Win7 at the buyer's request.

--JorgeA

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Ups, if HP will consent the UPgrading from Win8 to Win7...then all the OEM dealers will consider that option and Microsoft will have two choices: make Service Pack 2 for Windows 7 as soon as possible, or even worst for their beloved Win8 - to make a Service Pack 1 with the start menu back where it belongs and split Windows in two different branches (as it should be): one for desktop/laptop and other for phone/tablet.

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On the question what they saw with Windows 8... well, as you've said earlier Charlotte, Ballmer was willing to buy Yahoo for 44 billion dollars. That was because he was blinded by Google envy at that time. Now he has Apple-envy.

Envy makes Ballmer literally mad apparently.

Edited by Formfiller
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A Preview of the Ubuntu Smartphone OS from CES ( Tom's Hardware 2013-01-14 )

Part of the tidal wave of phones and tablets that are coming. Let' see, iOS, Android, Blackberry, WP, Ubuntu, WebOS, and more. What exactly was Microsoft's plan again? Oh yeah, abuse their desktop monopoly and push Windows 8 onto it so that the users would magically fall in love with the interface and run out and by enough phones to crack 5% of this behemoth market. Are drugs legal up there in Washington?

Microsoft Surface sold fewer than 1 million units in Q4 2012 ( TechSpot 2013-01-14 )

UBS: Microsoft sold 1 million Surfaces last quarter ( NeoWin 2013-01-14 )

Tell Me Again How Surface Is the Tablet Consumers Really Want ( AllThingsD 2013-01-15 )

At NeoWin, the commenters are a marvel of cognitive dissonance. You gotta give them props for maintaining that optimism despite everything they hear. I almost feel sad. Almost. In fact their frayed nerves are on display in another thread ...

From The Forums: Our readers debating Windows 8 ( NeoWin 2013-01-14 )

The holy war continues though I sense a little less spring in the step of the MicroZealots. What is interesting is a reference to the commenter called "mdcdesign" ( see Post #1464 ) who claims responsibility variously for Longhorn, Metro and Aero, has accidentally led to another thread there with more posts by him. I'll be getting back to this when I get some free time. Follow that last link if you can't wait to see his brilliant insight into why Aero Glass was sacrificed.

EDIT: added link

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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On the question what they saw with Windows 8... well, as you've said earlier Charlotte, Ballmer was willing to buy Yahoo for 44 billion dollars. That was because he was blinded by Google envy at that time. Now he has Apple-envy.

Envy makes Ballmer literally mad apparently.

That's interesting. So, instead of creating something new or playing to his company's own strengths, Ballmer is lurching left and then right, trying to imitate other companies' successes.

--JorgeA

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@CharlotteTheHarlot:

If I posted the following in the "Ways to get the Start Menu back" thread, I'd be violating my own rules, :) so I'm commenting on your latest post from there over here:

Start is back! ( The Verge 2013-01-14 )
Personally I’m disappointed by the people who are profiting off of those who have been incapable of adapting to the new paradigm.

It's dumbfounding (not to say disappointing, to borrow a word) how some folks seem to be incapable (to borrow another word) of understanding that "new" is not necessarily "better." Why should I "adapt" to something that I find worse?

And what's this business about "adapting," anyway -- are we to be viewed as little more than machines (like the Roomba) with no particular preferences, and which mindlessly and unquestioningly "adapt" to whatever new circumstances are framed around us?

--JorgeA

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Another tepid review of the Surface Pro:

Surface Pro: Even Microsofts own tablet

cant solve Windows 8′s intrinsic flaws

As a concept a mobile, all-in-one computing device I still think the Surface Pro is a good idea (though I still think smartphones have the edge). I also think that Microsofts hardware engineers have done a fantastic job at trying to create a device that ameliorates Windows 8′s Jekyll & Hyde tendencies it was really very cruel of the Microsoft execs to ask them to create a device that bridges the vast, paradigmatic chasm present in Windows 8.

In practice, at a starting price of $900 and a weight/aspect ratio that makes it almost impossible to use with one hand, I think youd be better off buying a cheap Android tablet and a high-performance desktop PC or perhaps just save up a little more cash and buy a transformer ultrabook.

(emphasis added)

--JorgeA

Edited by JorgeA
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OT (off topic) but OT (on topic), about this:

http://allthingsd.com/20130115/tell-me-again-how-surface-is-the-tablet-consumers-really-want/

When on my "real life" job I do estimate *something* (building/construction projects), I rarely miss the target by anything larger than 20% on preliminary estimates, it never happened in my life to make a wrong estimation by more than 10% and normally the difference between final estimation and final costs is within +/- 5%.

I do understand how estimating sales (or if you prefer forecast them) allows for larger margins of error, but going from an estimated two millions to a "now estimated" one million that another "magician" estimates as 700,000 and that another one "now estimates" as 500,000-600,000 but that "just last month estimated" as 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 is crazy.

You cannot call them "estimations", "result of throwing a couple of dice and multiplying result by 100,000" seems like a much more accurate description of the procedure they used (and are using).

Please remember that set apart the specific nonsense about the Surface RT these are "decision makers" from very influential firms :w00t: , these are the guys that decide the rating of a country or of a bank/financial institutions, they are those that indirectly influence the value of the money you have in your pocket or the value of your home, or the value of the stocks you may possess :ph34r: .

The word of the day is obviously:

This one

And here is the version for Windows 8 users (intended users, not necessarily actual users ;)):

http://www.infovisual.info/06/081_en.html

081%20clown.jpg

jaclaz

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It's dumbfounding (not to say disappointing, to borrow a word) how some folks seem to be incapable (to borrow another word) of understanding that "new" is not necessarily "better." Why should I "adapt" to something that I find worse?

And what's this business about "adapting," anyway -- are we to be viewed as little more than machines (like the Roomba) with no particular preferences, and which mindlessly and unquestioningly "adapt" to whatever new circumstances are framed around us?

If those NeoWin and Verge MicroBorg were even slightly intelligent they would understand that they are acting completely inversely to common sense. The most vital ingredient to technological progress is technological darwinism. Bad or impractical or inefficient or just plain stupid ideas must not only be criticized, but shunned lest progress be artificially detoured down every single rabbit hole on the road to perfection. What they are doing when they say "adapt or die" is reversing the order of who is servicing who. Technology is designed to service humanity not vice versa. Technology must adapt or die to humanity, not vice versa. They actually seem to believe we are supposed to bend and adapt to these products even though they are not vaguely designed to help the customer in any way. Clearly these products like Windows 8 and Metro are actually designed to benefit only Microsoft in the most cynical manner yet conceived. Frankly these children couldn't be more dense if they were made of lead. Their entire worldview exactly mirrors the borg, nameless, mindless servants of the MicroHive. "Resistance is Futile". ~barf~ :puke:

I do understand how estimating sales (or if you prefer forecast them) allows for larger margins of error, but going from an estimated two millions to a "now estimated" one million that another "magician" estimates as 700,000 and that another one "now estimates" as 500,000-600,000 but that "just last month estimated" as 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 is crazy.]

You cannot call them "estimations", "result of throwing a couple of dice and multiplying result by 100,000" seems like a much more accurate description of the procedure they used (and are using).

They are using some huge error bars in their guestimates. As we say over here in the states, 'close enough for government work" :lol:Added: one more thing that I haven't seen yet in these unofficial numbers is that earlier dogfood announcement where Microsoft gave a WP8 phone and a Surface RT to each of their almost 100,000 employees. so if the total number was 1 million in sales then fully 10% of them were bought by Microsoft. If the number is 500,000 total, then 20% were bought internally and that would be incredibly embarrassing.

Everytime these stories come out I worry a little about piling on or kicking them while they're down, and really feel uncomfortable from never being on this side of the argument before. But then I remember that even as we sit here and write these comments, their plan is still underway, feeding their Windows legacy destroying products into the OEM monopoly channel with little chance of correcting course. So then I stop feeling sorry for them and continue. This whole thing is like watching those Russian dashcam car crashes on LiveLeak in slow motion.

P.S. For some reason when I look at that or any clown picture I immediately see Ballmer superimposed.

EDIT: added one more thing

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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A good, brief overview of the challenges Microsoft and its Surface Pro are facing:

Microsoft Surface Pro Tablet Prospects Iffy

With Microsoft (MSFT) Surface tablets running Windows RT selling slowly, the company has a lot riding on upcoming Surface Pro tablets that run full-blown Windows 8 and Office software.

But the new professional device — a tablet that converts into an ultraportable notebook with an attachable keyboard — doesn't have the makings of a successful product, says Michael Cherry, an analyst with independent research firm Directions on Microsoft. Surface Pro is basically just another thin and light notebook using Intel (INTC) processors that competes with notebooks from Microsoft's hardware partners, including Acer, Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Lenovo.

"For $899, I want a really solid machine," Cherry said. The attachable keyboard with the Surface is too flimsy to use on your lap, he says.

Replying to the post just above this one --

[...]The most vital ingredient to technological progress is technological darwinism. Bad or impractical or inefficient or just plain stupid ideas must not only be criticized, but shunned lest progress be artificially detoured down every single rabbit hole on the road to perfection. What they are doing when they say "adapt or die" is reversing the order of who is servicing who. Technology is designed to service humanity not vice versa. Technology must adapt or die to humanity, not vice versa. They actually seem to believe we are supposed to bend and adapt to these products even though they are not vaguely designed to help the customer in any way.[...]

Great point! I hadn't thought of it that way, but now that you mention it, it makes total sense.

--JorgeA

Edited by JorgeA
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Microsoft employee approval rating of Ballmer, company increase ( NeoWin 2013-01-16 )

This doesn't pass the smell test. The only explanations are (1) that he drove so many people to quit that all remaining are either relatively new or longtime sycophants, or (2) the site that collects these anonymous reviews is rigged or being defrauded. But here is a different take on it ...

Microsoft employees: We like Steve Ballmer...sort of ( ComputerWorld 2013-01-16 )

Of course, a 46% approval rating is nothing to crow about. In fact, it's dismal. The CEOs of SAP and National Instruments rated 100%. Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg came in at 99%. Apple's Tim Cook rated 93%. Google's Larry Page was rated 94%. Ballmer's 46% rating puts him at 47th out of the 50 CEOs rated. Marginally better than 48th place a year previous. But still, 47th place out of 50 is an awful showing. He rates even below Zynga's Mark Pincus, who has a 54% rating.

Stardock: 3 million Start8 downloads; version 1.1 launched ( NeoWin 2013-01-16 )

Pokki revamps Windows 8 Start menu program; hits 1.5 million downloads ( NeoWin 2013-01-16 )

Bring back the Windows 8 Start menu, say 1.5 million Pokki downloaders ( The Verge 2013-01-16 )

Well I guess we can say that in at least one way Microsoft is doing what it used to do in the old days - making millionaires. :thumbup

As you can imagine the comments of those articles contain a lot of whining and contempt by the Borg children about people who purchased Start Menu restorers. The same exact spoiled, childish, arrogant, Apple-esque rantings from Windows 8 and Metro lovers exists at both NeoWin and The Verge.

EDIT: added Start8 article, another Pokki article, another Ballmer article.

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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Apropos of what we've said before about the rush to cloud computing, a trend both illustrated and promoted by Microsoft's Windows 8/RT Surface:

Avoiding the Hidden Costs of the Cloud

Here's the link to the article where I found this.

"Forty-three percent of respondents have lost data in the cloud and have had to recover from backups," Elliott said. And the recovery process has failed at least once for most.

And now for the full text of the report.

--JorgeA

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