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Windows 8 - Deeper Impressions


JorgeA

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How ever this ends up shaking out, I think we can say good bye to cheap computers. The prices are going to go up and we will be stuck with it.

Is the target audience of your post (this site) buying cheap computers?

I'm not sure who @bpalone had in mind, but <raising hand> I confess to buying some cheap computers in my time. :)

One of my best purchases was a quad-core AMD system by H-P just about two years ago, which we are using as a DVR for cable TV via Windows Media Center (and it's contributing spare CPU cycles to a DC project). Cost just over $400 back then and it's not exactly doing simplistic, mass-market functions.

Although in the last few years I've learned how to tinker with the insides of a PC, I've never built my own system. But I never say never... ;)

--JorgeA

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Unrelated but very related... http://channel9.msdn.com/Forums/Coffeehouse/Wordpress-have-suspended-my-blog ...WordPress shuts down his blog without any reason or warning.

In the walled-garden dream world of Apple, Microsoft and most likely Google... how long before such things happen to small guys trying to become a big player?

I'm a bit busy to write a long post but I hope someone does! haha... All these so called "app stores" make me sick. They not only take 30% of your profits, they also take away your freedom and will control you. Perhaps not now because they are not big enough... but just watch and see.

Amazing how people after all the bad monopolistic behaviours all these big corps do, Microsoft AND the others... they still allow them to be controlled by these corps by using their "stores". How hard is it to setup a website? Really.

Brave new world they said... well, it doesn't mean a brave new BETTER world... or atleast... not for us. ;)

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Unrelated but very related... http://channel9.msdn.com/Forums/Coffeehouse/Wordpress-have-suspended-my-blog ...WordPress shuts down his blog without any reason or warning.

Ahh, the wonders of automated enforcement -- like red-light cameras that give YOU the ticket even if the driver is actually a thief who took your car.

Brave New World indeed. To mix authors, even Orwell couldn't have dreamed this up.

--JorgeA

Edited by JorgeA
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Some people are of the opinion that computers are unrealistically cheap and have been for years, and we're seeing the results via OEMs considering leaving the market. This can actually be a good thing, even though prices rise. I'm thinking of the RAM market "crash" of 2001 where weaker vendors with lower quality products left a flooded market. Of course, price fixing via cartel was involved here, too, so it's not the purest example.

Prices are cheap because of everyone jumping on China and others to capitalize on slave labor, allowing them to maintain or lower prices but increase profit ( like Microsoft removing the MPEG decoders from Windows and still charging the same price and pocketing the difference ). This business model proves P.T. Barnum right, there is truly a sucker born every minute. But they are near absolute bottom now because at some point the device costs more to stock, package, advertise and ship than the customer actually pays in cash.

Long before we even had this slave labor there was a clear linear or even exponential rise in consumer value over time, mostly due to Moore's law for microprocessors and its relations with HDD density and RAM speed and other things ( while Windows mostly crept forward at a snail's pace ). Pretty much for two and half unbroken decades an average system was like $2000 USA and that price first bought a PC1, then an XT, then an AT, etc right up into the Pentium 4 era. Later they would throw in the printer or something, but the expense was very consistent while the power dramatically increased. As the east opened up and their regimes figured out they could pacify their restless natives by offering them up as minimum wage workers ( but at early 20th century standards ) the race to the bottom quickly began with all of our "patriotic" companies hiring and expanding over there and laying off over here. This IMHO caused the downward price spiral of the past 5 years as they competed with each other but still pocketing most of the difference, which is why we still see huge profitably of these companies in an economy that is in the toilet. If China ever went on strike, and it held for a quarter or two, most of the entire western economies would simply collapse.

But this has really nothing to do now with the current price spike since October from Windows 8 however. This I believe is directly from Microsoft still squeezing all their captive monopoly channels for all their worth, and simultaneously urging them to add in touchscreens ( which were at the very least in short supply ) to justify the increase. It is a bit of a Hail Mary pass if you ask me, as the consumers are now getting picky and more frugal. So this is another cash-grab, they are "getting it while the going's good". The problem with wishing for and justifying higher prices ( see Thurrott ) is that the corporate bean counters will never do anything except what is easy, what adds only to profit, and what pleases Wall Street or shareholders. Since their goals are "profitably" and "growth" rather than "quality" or "satisfaction", we know what we can expect. Consumer value and quality are not even on the list anymore. The higher price difference does not go to hire local jobs here or to purchase better parts, in fact they are still only going to buy the cheapest available. It is simply tweaking the spreadsheet to bump of the profit side of the ledger, and there are only a couple of ways to do that, and only the easy ones are on their agenda, and most importantly they are mostly used up now ( well unless factories start going up in rural Africa, and we can literally get back to where we started with slave labor ).

We once had what we called the DotCom bubble. We are now in the end-stages of the computer and related bubble, or better yet: the "slave labor prolonged computer and related bubble", and it is going to blow. The companies are just sucking in every drop of cash they can, while they can. Presently there are many premium items being bought for obscene prices, like $800 cellphones, but they are disguised in subsidy and this is the only way it could still happen in the current economy. The carriers buy them by the boatload and then must bleed the cash from somewhere, and here in the USA we see it play out firsthand where only a decade ago a phone bill was $20 a month ( so was cable ) but now people see $100 or more. This model will also collapse as waves of dirt cheap cellphones get shipped and eventually the phony subsidy model gets exposed to Joe Schmo as the scam that it is and he just stops playing ( Microsoft was way late to this scam ). This phony "subsidy" model ( like a "car lease" or home "rent to own" ) which allows devices to be sold at great profit also extends to corporate who also buy boatloads of computers and related devices at ridiculous prices ( considering the bulk ) and if they ever get frugal ( since they pass it along disguised in their products ), every company that drinks at the corporate trough will implode. This will occur precisely because the corporate directors and bean-counters have simply run out of easy ways to boost profit while keeping expenses the same or lower. Watch for layoffs and cut employee benefits as the leading indicator, and ignore the Wall Street talking heads who always cheer these moves. I expect a chain-reaction and who knows, maybe even a depression similar to the 1930's or 1890's or 1870's.

Microsoft's cloud Plan A is their only idea to survive by the coming apocalypse, and want to do so by plugging themselves directly into the bank accounts of the sheeple to make periodic withdrawals while the "automatic updates" shift some very minor changes down to their device ( in itself a joke, practically a placebo, add some templates and clipart to Office and tweak a few obvious things so the sheeple says "wow, what a great free update" to justify this phony model ). In short, do the least effort possible to continually get paid. Wait until the sheeple catch on.

So to summarize, and to paraphrase Thurrott, "the lower prices are indeed unrealistic", but clearly NOT for the reasons he thinks. In his shallow manner of thinking prices will simply rise and everyone is happy ( except for the careful consumer of course ). But what will actually happen is that the lumbering behemoth Wall Street darlings will once again just pocket the difference. Then we end up with the absolute worse of all worlds - slave labor building cheap devices sold for high prices and the cash goes straight into the profit column of those lumbering behemoths. I'd say 3 to 5 years tops and the DJIA is at 8000 again. Maybe sooner. The cash flushed companies like Apple, Google and Microsoft are gonna need it ( as an aside, just imagine if Microsoft had bought Yahoo for $45 billion, their little party would now be over ).

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It's funny you mentioned TV. When I mentioned that a $125 price hike may be enough to collapse the PC market, I could hear the objection, if not here but elsewhere, that people pay that every month so they'd be willing to pay that for a computer, too. Well, like you said, due to economic factors, I think people are starting to wise up over the value (or lack thereof) of TV. And this is independent of the upcoming MLB renewal, which may spike rates to levels simply unaffordable to the average household.

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Archos to unveil three Android smartphones at Mobile World Congress ( TechSpot 2013-02-18 )

Archos Launching Three Android Smartphones in May ( Tom's Hardware 2013-02-19 )

Samsung goes after Nokia's Asha with new REX smartphones ( NeoWin 2013-02-18 )

Two more strikes against that foolproof Microsoft Plan A, destroy Windows to gain marketshare in the mobile space. The numbers of non-WP users is growing so fast that every company on Earth not producing WP would now need to take a year off in order for them to hold their current 2% or whatever position. Chances of moving up in marketshare? About the same as a series of Asteroid strikes landing only the factories that build mobile devices for Apple, Samsung, Blackberry, and a hundred others ( not to mention somehow wipe out Nokia's Asha also while missing the Lumias :lol: ). The mobile low-end marketshare for phones and tablets is going to be eaten alive by a tsunami of competitors while Microsoft believes it can penetrate it through mostly high-end Apple-like boutique gadgets. This is what Windows was sacrificed for. Management and board members should be arrested for corporate incompetence. And now Nokia has to watch its back with Samsung attacking that "other" category.

With Windows 8, you need new hardware ( NeoWin 2013-02-18 )

The difference for Windows 8, unlike 7, Vista or XP, is that without the right hardware, the OS was a bit bunk. Simply upgrading your OS on your old hardware was no longer enough, what you need is new hardware that is very slowly starting to arrive. We can see the first attempts with the Surface RT/Pro and also the likes of the Lenovo Helix and Yoga.

Wrong buddy. For starters, Windows XP was a dog on the average hardware of 2001 ( P3 or P4 Willamette at barely 1 GHz, SDRAM, no SATA, USB 1.x, ugggh! ) so no better example exists for an operating system that cried out for the hardware that came out 3 years later. Vista had a similar problem although the hardware existed ( 2 GB RAM, Core2 CPUs ) but was expensive high-end in 2006. So many computers, especially laptops shipped with low-end P4 Celerons and "dual-core" with less than 2 GB RAM that it had no real chance of performing smoothly. Since Windows 7 ( v6.1 ) was practically the same or improved slightly from Vista ( v6.0 ) the elapsed time of 3 years worked out exactly perfect for performance since the high-end of 2006 was now mainstream in 2009. Windows 8 ( v6.2 ) is probably the only time ( except for 7 ) where hardware was never an issue with respect to performance. When the MetroTards say "Wow, it's so fast on my system" the question really should be: "Why wouldn't it be?" D'oh. Sorry friend, you're gonna need something else for a scapegoat.

Sacrilegious: Surface Pro running OS X ( NeoWin 2013-02-18 )

Wikipedia ... Sacrilege is the violation or injurious treatment of a sacred object or person. It can come in the form of irreverence to sacred persons, places, and things. When the sacrilegious offence is verbal, it is called blasphemy. In a less proper sense, any transgression against what is seen as the virtue of religion would be a sacrilege. "Sacrilege" originates from the Greek sacer, sacred, and legere, to steal, as in Roman times it referred to the plundering of temples and graves. By the time of Cicero, sacrilege had adopted a more expansive meaning, including verbal offences against religion and undignified treatment of sacred objects.

More proof that we are debating a religious cult. Them arguments are hard to win. :yes:

By the way, the article is about turning the Surface Pro into a Hackintosh. :whistle: That's gonna leave a mark.

EDIT: typos, added another link

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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Can Microsoft bring BI to the masses if the Excel 2013 masses can't get BI? ( Mary Jo Foley ZDNet 2013-02-18 )

Another Office jaw-dropping shaft of the stick into your nether regions from Microsoft.

Microsoft's carrot-and-stick approach designed to move users to Microsoft-preferred Office SKUs is continuing. The latest group to discover new and more restrictive Office 2013 licensing changes is the Excel data-analytics crowd.

...

But with Excel 2013, the latest version of Microsoft's spreadsheet program, only those with the Office Professional Plus version of the new Office will have full access to Excel 2013's BI capabilities.

The Excel/Microsoft BI community is none too happy about Microsoft's decision to restrict full PowerPivot functionality, as is evident in the comments from various blog posts on the topic ...

Really good article. They've clearly declared war on the customer and make no pretense anymore. The MicroZealots have their hands full trying to defend them, because it's pretty much impossible. This is beyond cynical, they have a collection of petulant children in charge that matches their peanut gallery of MetroTards.

Microsoft quietly raises prices of Mac Office by up to 17% ( ComputerWorld 2013-02-18 )

Microsoft sneakily increases Office 2011 for Mac price by $20 ( NeoWin 2013-02-19 )

Microsoft raises Mac Office prices, ends multi-license packs ( TechSpot 2013-02-19 )

Microsoft: You want Office for Mac, fanboi? You'll pay Windows prices ( UK Register 2013-02-19 )

And the hit parade continues. Alienate absolutely everyone!

EDIT: added more links

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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...

I'd say 3 to 5 years tops and the DJIA is at 8000 again. Maybe sooner. The cash flushed companies like Apple, Google and Microsoft are gonna need it ( as an aside, just imagine if Microsoft had bought Yahoo for $45 billion, their little party would now be over ).

Way too kind... I say top 2 years. As a matter of fact, I have put my money where my mouth is and am shorting DJIA like there is no tomorrow. I'm going red right now like hell but yeah, I'm awaiting the big crash. :)

Speaking of alienating, spot on. The problem is, Microsoft still thinks it's the 90s... well, it's not and the Internet is full blown here now. Things spread much faster than the 90s. I think they are in world of hurt coming 1-2 years from now. Many of their hardcore fans ( like myself ) are turning against them and they won't feel it right away but soon... soon enough, they will feel it.

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For starters, Windows XP was a dog on the average hardware of 2001 ( P3 or P4 Willamette at barely 1 GHz, SDRAM, no SATA, USB 1.x, ugggh! ) so no better example exists for an operating system that cried out for the hardware that came out 3 years later. Vista had a similar problem although the hardware existed ( 2 GB RAM, Core2 CPUs ) but was expensive high-end in 2006. So many computers, especially laptops shipped with low-end P4 Celerons and "dual-core" with less than 2 GB RAM that it had no real chance of performing smoothly. Since Windows 7 ( v6.1 ) was practically the same or improved slightly from Vista ( v6.0 ) the elapsed time of 3 years worked out exactly perfect for performance since the high-end of 2006 was now mainstream in 2009. Windows 8 ( v6.2 ) is probably the only time ( except for 7 ) where hardware was never an issue with respect to performance. When the MetroTards say "Wow, it's so fast on my system" the question really should be: "Why wouldn't it be?"

You're completely right on this. That's why I also consider Windows 7 as a very unremarkable release. It's basically a repackaged Vista SP2 with minor UI improvements, with the key difference being its later release and thus the availability of more powerful hardware. If you would put Vista SP2 and Win7 on current hardware, you wouldn't notice much difference. There is a speed increase, but it's very minor. In fact, Vista looks actually more glossy than W7 (the smooth orb-animation on boot-up in Vista is gone in W7, the smooth transition from the log-in screen to the desktop is gone as well, windowing animations are more jerky). Quite a shame that Sinofsky got such praise for it.

The only actual core improvement of Windows 7 is in my opinion the saner licensing. With higher up SKUs havíng all the features of the lesser versions - Pro having all the features of Home Premium. That was different with Vista; Business SKU had not all features of Home Premium (especially the DVD codecs and Media Center were missing). Ironically, exactly these features have been cut again in Windows 8!

Edited by Formfiller
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You're completely right on this. That's why I also consider Windows 7 as a very unremarkable release. It's basically a repackaged Vista SP2 with minor UI improvements, with the key difference being its later release and thus the availability of more powerful hardware. If you would put Vista SP2 and Win7 on current hardware, you wouldn't notice much difference. There is a speed increase, but it's very minor. In fact, Vista looks actually more glossy than W7 (the smooth orb-animation on boot-up in Vista is gone in W7, the smooth transition from the log-in screen to the desktop is gone as well, windowing animations are more jerky). Quite a shame that Sinofsky got such praise for it.

The only actual core improvement of Windows 7 is in my opinion the saner licensing. With higher up SKUs havíng all the features of the lesser versions - Pro having all the features of Home Premium. That was different with Vista; Business SKU had not all features of Home Premium (especially the DVD codecs and Media Center were missing). Ironically, exactly these features have been cut again in Windows 8!

Vista also had the original UAC and the promptless black screen windows update at reboot ( can't remember if they were fixed in the service packs ). If you had Vista RTM on a plain dual-core or celeron you were already going mad from the interminable sluggishness, but after getting hit with UACs, arrrgh! Add in the realtime AV and you wanted to smash it into little pieces. I just use administrator accounts on mine of course, but working on others, they can never really pay enough to compensate for the pain. :lol:

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Vista also had the original UAC and the promptless black screen windows update at reboot ( can't remember if they were fixed in the service packs ). If you had Vista RTM on a plain dual-core or celeron you were already going mad from the interminable sluggishness, but after getting hit with UACs, arrrgh! Add in the realtime AV and you wanted to smash it into little pieces. I just use administrator accounts on mine of course, but working on others, they can never really pay enough to compensate for the pain. :lol:

I think the black screen habit was fixed with the service packs. I wouldn't praise the UAC behavior on W7 much though, they have "fixed" that one only through a pretty ugly hack:

http://www.pretentiousname.com/misc/win7_uac_whitelist2.html

So it's only less annoying in W7 by making it completely useless on the default setting in the first place. The default-setting prompts don't really function in W7, yet they are still here just for show and annoy. Those kind of "solutions" employed by Sinfosky's team were kinda a hint to what's to come with W8..

Edited by Formfiller
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Paul Thurrott having an identity crisis:

http://winsupersite.com/windows-8/blue

In what can only be described as a high-tech version of Stockholm syndrome, Windows fans now have all their hopes wrapped up in “Blue,” a set of “year one” updates to Windows 8 and related platforms that will supposedly right all the wrongs of the original releases. I don’t want to rain on this well-intentioned parade, but I think it’s time for a little common sense. Blue will surely be an improvement. But don’t expect a panacea that fixes all of the problems with Microsoft latest platforms.

...

See, the thing is, Windows 8 is broken right now. It’s got a lot of built-in apps that don’t work properly, or well, and they’re connected to a lot of online services—especially the terrible Xbox entertainment services—that are in need of even more work. So while switching from a once-every-three-years to once-a-year schedule sounds great, the truth is that Windows 8/RT and Windows Phone 8, in particular, needs to be fixed before one year. They need to be fixed now.

Also some months ago, he called Windows 8 FrankensteinOS or something in that vein. Thurrott is obviously conflicted. He calls W8 a disaster, yet scoffs HP for wanting to flee it. What's wrong looking for alternatives if the product from your OS supplier is a disaster?

My personal guess ist that deep down he doesn't like W8, but needs to praise it to keep his gig. He's incapable to run this charade at all time though.

Edited by Formfiller
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Wrong buddy. For starters, Windows XP was a dog on the average hardware of 2001 ( P3 or P4 Willamette at barely 1 GHz, SDRAM, no SATA, USB 1.x, ugggh! ) so no better example exists for an operating system that cried out for the hardware that came out 3 years later.

The amount of memory commonly installed was the worst part. 128 MB was just becoming the standard, and 64 was the budget option. That's a pathetic amount of memory for XP but it was a lot for Windows 98. K-6s were still around and not all of them used SDRAM or they had some hybrid system of SDRAM and EDO. Most people with 256 MB or more RAM were building their own.

I remember being mystified at how slowly PC specs rose to meet demand during this period. What we should have seen was a jump in RAM spec from 64-128 to 256-512 but instead it increased at the same pace as if a dramatic change in computer operation didn't happen. RAM was cheap back then, too. Even the "premium" computers cheaped out on RAM. It was very strange.

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Oh uh, Thurrott loses his cool again

Do people still use Messenger? I'm not sure how it got popular in the first place since the market was already flooded with ICQ, AIM, and Yahoo! Messenger, all of which were arguably more functional than Messenger.

I don't get the objections, though. What's wrong with Skype specifically? I know it's not specifically designed for text chat but is it that bad? Or is he objecting to the fact that calls are hosted from the PC rather than a central server? In all his ranting Thurrott never clearly defined his position.

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