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Windows 8 - Deeper Impressions


JorgeA

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Something interesting I noticed:

web server survey

Look at "Market share of active sites". Microsoft had a drop at April 2009 and continues dropping since then.

stat.png

From 38% in April 2009 to 11.08% now.

Coincidentally, that drop happened right around when they have released ASP.NET MVC:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASP.NET_MVC_Framework ("13 March 2009: ASP.NET MVC 1.0")

I get the feeling that it's related. Sure, WebForms is still supported.. somewhat (just like Silverlight is!)

But they p***ed some loyal webforms devs off back then, and that hit them apparently. Here you can see a webforms dev raging.

Also, despite some problems, WebForms was a pretty unique technology, while ASP.NET MVC is the one millionth MVC framework.

How is chasing the hipsters working out for you, Microsoft? Marketshare was climbing constantly before the MVC release, then, exactly at release, it just plumbed. After Ruby-On-Rails, Django etc. appeared, Microsoft apparently exploded with envy and had to p*** off their webforms devs, and now they are at their lowest marketshare in web servers since ever.

Edited by Formfiller
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What did I just read? :wacko:

Microsoft announce Windows 8 rework in 'biggest product U-turn since New Coke'

Microsoft is set to bow to pressure from customers and change “key aspects” of its much-maligned Windows 8 operating system.

In a move described by some analysts as the biggest product U-turn since Coca Cola dropped “New Coke” 30 years ago, an updated version of Microsoft 8 released later this year will be significantly different.

Microsoft's head of marketing and finance, Tammy Reller, confirmed the plan in an interview with the Financial Times, admitting that many users had struggled to master the new operating system. “The learning curve is definitely real,” she said.

Windows 8 was viewed as an attempt to update the personal computer for the tablet era when it was launched last October. It includes a touchscreen interface but does away with the “desktop” launch screen familiar to millions of home and work computer users.

Ms Reller did not reveal details of what changes would be made.

Richard Doherty, an analyst at tech research firm Envisioneering told the Financial Times: “This is like New Coke, going on for seven months – only Coke listened better.” New Coke was dropped after a huge consumer back lash.

Microsoft sold 100 million Windows 8 licences in the first six months since the new operating system launched in October last year.

However, consumer interest has flagged. The revamp is viewed by some analysts as a significant admission of failure by Microsoft's chief executive Steve Ballmer, who called the launch of Windows 8 a “bet-the-company” moment.

source: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/microsoft-announce-windows-8-rework-in-biggest-product-uturn-since-new-coke-8605776.html

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Be careful, maybe it's just about the old news that the start button and boot to desktop come back. We know this already and that's far from fixing the Windows 8 disaster. The start button stills leads to the metro menu, so it's a very minor fix, if a fix at all.

Now, if they would bring back the start menu back, that would be something different.

Edited by Formfiller
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Opinion: Here's One Reason Why Windows 8 Sales Are Slow ( Tom's Hardware 2013-05-06 )

An example of the opposite type of article often seen at the NeoWin MicroZealot site where you can find anti-Windows 8 click-baitstories. Over at Tom's Hardware, a performance enthusiast hangout, they have done the opposite - letting a fanboy post an article pro-Windows 8. Hopefully the author brought a change of underwear.

Internal Microsoft memo shoots down 'always online' Xbox concerns ( TechSpot 2013-05-06 )

Microsoft Email Hints to No Always-On for Next Xbox ( Tom's Hardware 2013-05-06 )

Next Xbox won't require always on connection after all ( NeoWin 2013-05-06 )

"Durango is designed to deliver the future of entertainment while engineered to be tolerant of today's Internet. There are a number of scenarios that our users expect to work without an Internet connection, and those should 'just work' regardless of their current connection status. Those include, but are not limited to: playing a Blu-ray disc, watching live TV, and yes playing a single player game."

Ironically this rumor is safe to believe according to the resident MicroZealots and MetroTards in various comments. It simply must be real! It is also amazing that the assumption is that this alleged memo means that they were never going to require always-online, rather than the more likely case that they are backtracking.

I never believed the rumors about always online. The always online rumor never had any credible sources, the closest to being credible was Adam Orth's twitter statements and those were quickly found out to be personal trolling attempts directed at Manveer Heir, a Bioware designer who was a friend of Orth. And there were several reports, some from credible sources, saying that there was no always online requirement. MS is sure to know how poor the internet infrastructure is in countries like the US, Canada, and Australia, and they know the US is their best selling market, the only major market where the 360 lead the PS3 in sales. They're not going to do something that will cost them most of their customers in their leading market.

No, they would never do that. :no: Actually, they do that over and over again. :yes:

This is absolutely NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Microsoft feels absolutely comfortable collecting tons of data for transmission upon next connect - everything from the minute actions you take within each game (skip cut-scenes, not skip), channels you watch, time of activity, possibly using built-in Kinect to monitor and report habitation patterns, and even photos and/or sound recordings. Our crappy government is waaaayyyy behind the curve when it comes to legislating privacy, and this information will all be up for grabs legally. Storage is sufficiently cheap that data will be stored in perpetuity. Being able to run the device in offline mode from day one until the end of days is the only reasonable protection a customer can hope for.

It wasn't that long that I too was dismissive of comments like these. No longer though. These days I'm right with this guy.

Anyway, this is a clear consequence of a lumbering behemoth of a company, weaving all over the road like a drunk driver. This is the direct result of not communicating with the public, even to this very moment! If the memo is real, what is the excuse for no public statements? This is a textbook siege mentality.

EDIT: clarity in that first sentence

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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It looks like the lunacy is contageous, Adobe is making what appears to be a bad step. Most of the comments I read were very negative, go take a look and see what you think. The full article is here.

It may be that in the not to distant future, that Open Source software becomes the defacto standard. I know that the programs I am aware of don't match up to Photo Shop, but they can get somewhat close. If some larger commercial operations, decide to support the development things could change.

I realize, this is somewhat off topic, but not really. :angel

It sure is ( that the lunacy is contagious ), and no, it really is on-topic because the same thing drives them and Microsoft. I believe that all companies are now looking for ways to amp up the sucking in of cash from consumers before the next economic crash. And they will use every menas at their disposal, monetizing every shred of IP they possess. I believe they fear a calamity ahead, with some good reason because the Stock Market is once again irrationally exuberant while all economic indicators are circling the drain. There are lots of bad scenarios, one bad one would be if North Korea wipes out Seoul, an indefensible location, and a key component of both the financial and stock market universe, and a huge player in technology. I remember what some floods did to Thailand and the chain reaction crippled the entire HDD industry and in turn affected the larger computer sector itself. Needless to say, there are many other things that can also happen besides another Korean conflict. So I think that all industries, particular the fickle and mostly mismanaged tech companies are going for the consumers' throats, whole hog and getting it while they can.

Ultimately, this is the backdrop for all of Microsoft's craziness. As they are recently "unrestrained" from government oversight over past antitrust issues they are now turning their noses up, using the operating system exactly as they are not supposed to, in order to leverage every desktop that runs Windows into a gateway to the Microsoft walled-garden. Adobe has always been a semi-crap company itself, doing some great stuff, but with much garbage as well. Old-timers remember that Adobe was an early cut-throat in the digital age, Apple-fying the PDF format by locking it down as propietary as possible. Then they butchered Macromedia properties such as Flash and monetized them both to the hilt. If it wasn't for Photoshop and Premiere and a few later derivatives they would be among the most hated companies today. Well in many circles they already are hated because their tone -deafness and arrogance matches Microsoft note for note. So there are no surprises in this for me at all.

Here is some more coverage ...

Adobe Creative Suite becomes subscription-only, kills Fireworks ( TechSpot 2013-05-06 )

Adobe Says Goodbye to Creative Suite, Hello to Creative Cloud ( Maximum PC 2013-05-06 )

Adobe abandons Creative Suite in favour of cloud offerings ( NeoWin 2013-05-06 )

Adobe Creative Suite Gives Way to Creative Cloud ( Tom's Hardware 2013-05-06 )

Adobe kills Creative Suite – all future features online only ( UK Register 2013-05-06 )

The company claims an "overwhelming" number of customers actually prefer the switch to a $50/month (or $600 annually) plan when compared to purchasing the software à la carte for thousands of dollars. At present, "Creative Cloud" is essentially a digitally-distributed version of Adobe's CS: Master Collection, but requires a monthly subscription validation check. Gone are the days of perpetual licenses which could be used for as long as the owner saw fit.

Now who does that sound like? Yep, customer metrics "say that ...", a parallel to Microsoft patented telemetry. What is interesting is that just like Microsoft, they cannot hide the fail for too long. I highly doubt that a majority of people are that math-challenged. What it comes down to is paying the entire cost several times over but in small amounts, like a cellphone, or a home mortgage. I think that over time this is the opposite of reality, and people are getting wise to the subscription approach. But time will tell.

EDIT: added articles

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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Microsoft: All RIGHT, you can have your Start button back. We blew it but now we're gonna Blue it, says Redmond, ( UK Register 2013-05-07 )

Microsoft: Windows Blue will respond to feedback, more details in coming weeks ( NeoWin 2013-05-07 )

Microsoft confirms Windows Blue update is shipping later this year ( TechSpot 2013-05-07 )

Windows Blue: Microsoft promises changes based on feedback and a holiday release ( The Verge 2013-05-07 )

Microsoft Talks a Little More About Windows Blue. Still keeping mum on the details, though. ( Tom's Hardware 2013-05-07 )

More on the story that GrofLuigi mentioned above. Awfully sketchy utterings from Tami Reller, one of Sinofsky's two replacements. Will they or won't they have a Start Menu? Will it point to Metro? Will Aero Glass and rounded corners and drop shadows and 3D elements return? Will they charge money for Windows 8 Blew? You know that if they do charge money for it that means they have established a de facto subscription model without ever admitting to it. Come on Ballmer, time to clear the air and make a statement.

Windows 8 reaches 100 million licenses sold ( NeoWin 2013-05-07 )

A closer look at the Windows 8 sales numbers ( NeoWin 2013-05-07 )

Windows 8 passes 100 million license sales, Microsoft reflects on the six month stage ( The Verge 2013-05-07 )

Microsoft Has Sold 100 Million Windows 8 Licenses ( Tom's Hardware 2013-05-07 ) ( Maximum PC 2013-05-07 )

Windows 8 Sales Reach 100 Million Licenses, Should Microsoft Reverse Course?

Yeah sure. :lol: That's why it shows up as 4% marketshare. Even at a firesale price of $39 ( or less ) and with all its competition banned from the marketplace ( other Windows versions ) this dog still can't hunt. I would guess that 100 million means about 50 million users at most. The bulk of the number are licenses sitting in OEM and corporate VLK hands. As far as consumers go, many are from people that bought multiple licenses because of the bargain basement price. 50 million "users" may actually be too high. Developers are not going to like this news even though the usual suspects at NeoWin and The Verge are celebrating. :blink: One inarguable fact is that Microsoft does in fact know how many copies of Windows 8 are activated and in use. Another inarguable fact is that they continue to not report it. Don't worry Steve, in the absence of factual announcements we'll just have to fill in the blanks.

EDIT: added more articles

Edited by CharlotteTheHarlot
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I highly doubt that a majority of people are that math-challenged.

I have to disagree with you, not only a lot of people are math challenged, but when it comes to certain types of software most users are "feature challenged". (or at least have been till now)

I have been working in the building field for many (maybe too many) years, but - seriously - I know maybe two or three people capable of using AutoCAD "properly" (in the sense of being capable of using the features that it offers),

As you might well know AutoDesk outputs a new version of Autocad every year or two.

I guess I have seen them all, the only "revolution" I can remember was the R14/2000 version (in practice the first versions running nicely under Windows).

Sure each year some new features were introduced, but the point is that noone (exception made for very high end users, which actually - often - use Bentley Microstation instead :w00t: ) uses them (not only because they dont' even know how to use those features, but mainly because they have NO use for them).

Still, on the PC's of each and every engineer, architect, surveyor, draftsman and what not there is a copy of the latest (or near to latest) Autocad (whether "original/licensed" or "pirated" is another matter :ph34r: ).

Same goes more or less for Photoshop.

Noone - if not a handful of high end graphic designers/illustrators/photographers - actually know how to use it if not "fully", well enough and actually *need* it's features.

Sure these people *need* it but they are a little number when compared to the common sillogism "graphic tool" = "Photoshop" or "drawing app" = "Autocad".

The photos you (or anyone else "average", no offence whatever intended ) took of a cousin's friend last year at the seaside have nothing to do with the work of (say) David Hamilton, besides the uglier model and the much worse photographer ;) you had also a bad camera, a terrible lighting, a senseless composition of the scene.

Sure you can use Photoshop to remove the red eyes and the other friend pulling faces behind her, but the result will suck big anyway (and you could have used any much cheaper soft to get the same result).

On Amazon, Photoshop CS6 (new, not "used") is (casually) a little over 600 bucks:

http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-65158237-Photoshop-CS6/dp/B007R0RKV8

So it is easy to compare.

It's not "thousands of dollars now" vs. 50 US$/month (600 US$/years), it 600 US$ now (and maybe another 600 bucks not earlier than two or three or four years) vs. 50 US$/month for the rest of your life.

Evidently even the most math challenged users maybe started to realize that it was foolish to buy a new version of the software with added features they wouldn't use.

Most probably a large number of them (possibly with the world crisis as additional reason) stopped buying a new version of the software every year, and the good Adobe guys "invented" a way to force them to start again (BTW in the meantime saving the costs for the CD/DVD's, the box, etc.).

Just like it is the issue with the MS guys, Adobe is of course perfectly free to choose the business model and licensing terms they prefer, whatever it is, and also to provide no alternatives, the real issue is AGAIN attempting to attribute this marketing move to preferences of their customers' base.

jaclaz

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It looks like the lunacy is contageous, Adobe is making what appears to be a bad step...

As a graphic designer, I had been hearing rumors about this for a while...and once again, I find myself excluded from this "majority of those polled" group, first I thought I was too young, now I'm too old...*sigh*...

Bill Gates predicts iPad and Android users will switch to PC tablets

If he's so good at predicting, why ain't he picking lottery numbers...

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The company claims an "overwhelming" number of customers actually prefer the switch to a $50/month (or $600 annually) plan when compared to purchasing the software à la carte for thousands of dollars. At present, "Creative Cloud" is essentially a digitally-distributed version of Adobe's CS: Master Collection, but requires a monthly subscription validation check. Gone are the days of perpetual licenses which could be used for as long as the owner saw fit.

Now who does that sound like? Yep, customer metrics "say that ...", a parallel to Microsoft patented telemetry. What is interesting is that just like Microsoft, they cannot hide the fail for too long. I highly doubt that a majority of people are that math-challenged. What it comes down to is paying the entire cost several times over but in small amounts, like a cellphone, or a home mortgage. I think that over time this is the opposite of reality, and people are getting wise to the subscription approach. But time will tell.

Actually this I believe true...I have a friend who shall remain nameless (no its not me I suck at PhotoShop) who pirated PhotoShop, until (s)he found out about the monthly subscription plan. Now they are a genuine user

Edit: actually strike the pirated comment, my friend just told me that they only pay $30 a month because they once purchased the full product (they get a discount)

Edited by ricktendo
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Microsoft is dead. They just don't know it yet. Microsoft will be like IBM, exist only on business side for a while to then be sold to China or Africa later on and become "LENOVO" or whatever...

image.jpg

Great graph, where'd you find it?

This is just the sort of global OS data that I was hoping for (not breaking it down into separate "desktop" and "mobile" categories). It shows vividly why the 'Softies are so scared: they see the plot line for Windows share plummeting and think that the only hope is to turn Windows into Tiles.

What's happening is that they made the common mistake of assuming that current trends will continue unchanged into the future. (If that method worked, then the Dow Jones, which rose from 776 to 7600 in the 15 years from 1982 to 1997, today would stand well above 74000. :w00t: Or going from 14000 in 2008 to 6500 in 2009, it would now be at about 900. :o

You can't just crudely project figures into the future like that. (Well, you can but the adjective to describe that can't be printed on this forum...)

IMO what's going to happen is that tablets and PCs eventually find a more-or-less stable level of use. No doubt many who historically were using PCs really only needed a toy device to browse the Web and tell their friends they just opened a bag of potato chips, which is why the Windows share is plummeting in favor of Android and iOS.

But it's not plummeting into oblivion, it's settling to a new natural level. There are and will always be a large number of people who need or prefer a real PC. If left alone, Windows (real Windows) would reach that level and continue to dominate that segment of the market. But by trying to make Windows into a one-size-fits-all "solution," Microsoft has come up with a strange hybrid that isn't really tailored for any audience. (Too expensive devices for tablets, too clunky UI for PCs.)

Ultimately -- and pending what if any real changes are coming in "Blue" -- Microsoft will have to choose between its leading product becoming a modest (maybe even lttle) fish in the mobile pond, or continuing as the big fish in the desktop pond. Windows can't be both.

--JorgeA

Edited by JorgeA
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I liked this comment on page 3 of the first link:

I'm glad they realize the desktop is still important for PC buyers but I think this goes to show that IMO in Microsoft's eyes the desktop is really there for compatibility as people migrate to Windows 8 Store Apps and touch driven devices. So what does that say about desktop technologies? I think "dead" may not be such a stretch after all.

So I add to my Microsoft AND list:

•AND the desktop is dead.

•AND desktop technologies are dead.

I'll happily remove these additions when I see Microsoft is making further substantial investments in the two. Sorry the re-addition of the "I told you so" start button and boot-to-desktop features aren't what I'd consider "substantial" no matter how much people cry about the agony of maintaining "old versions"

--JorgeA

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